EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) STATUS UPDATE 23 SEPTEMBER 2023
23 Sep 2023
El Niño conditions are currently observed, as the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. Most international climate models are in agreement that further warming of sea surface temperature is likely, and El Niño conditions are forecasted to strengthen over the next few months and also persist until early next year, 2024.
El Niño is also known to be the ‘warm phase’ of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. ENSO conditions are monitored by analysing Pacific sea surface temperatures, low level winds, cloudiness, and sub-surface temperatures. This phenomenon occurs every 3-7 years on average, and tends to peak during Northern Hemisphere winter (December to February).
During El Niño episode, temporary disruptions to local weather patterns is expected around the world, including Brunei Darussalam. The impacts of El Niño to our country typically includes suppressed rainfall activity with increasing air temperature and low relative humidity. Drier and hot weather conditions are expected to occur especially during the peak of the El Niño episode with possible increase in maximum daily temperatures reaching 34.0°C or more during the afternoon.
Excessive Hot Weather (EHW) or commonly known as heatwave event in Brunei Darussalam tends to occur during El Niño episodes. EHW is defined when daily observed maximum temperature is at least 35.0°C for three consecutive days. The most recent EHW event observed in Brunei Darussalam was during an El Niño episode on the 28-30 September 2019.
In view of the current El Niño conditions, Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Department would like to advise the general public to stay up to date with the latest weather updates, and take any necessary precaution and safety measures and to follow any guidelines given by relevant agencies with regards to the anticipated drier and hotter weather conditions over the coming months.
We shall continue to monitor the weather conditions from time to time and will issue weather advisories or warnings if necessary. Latest weather information, advisories and warnings can be accessed easily through our mobile app, Brunei WX, as these weather information, advisories and warnings can be received immediately after they are issued. Latest weather information can also be obtained by contacting the duty meteorological forecaster at our Forecast Centre, through our Weather Line 114, by visiting our website at www.met.gov.bn or follow our Facebook (@bruneiweather), Instagram (@brunei.weather) and our Telegram Channel (Brunei Weather).
Wallahu a’lam Bissawab.